Low Carbon Seminar (2/4)

Special Seminar 2008
HOW TO CREATE A LOW CARBON SOCIETY IN JAPAN
--A MESSAGE FROM TOKYO TO THE WORLD--


(picture above) A participant in Yukata, hanging an ORIGAMI star with her wish written on.

Moderator: In front of you now is the global warming simulator by the National Institute for Environmental Studies. How should we interpret this image which warns us of the future?
http://www.team-6.jp/cc-sim/english/

Mr.Ehara: This is the social economic scenario created by the global simulator. You can see that the temperature rise is significant in the inland areas. As temperature change progresses, we will need to change our lifestyles entirely. In such case, if we want to become a low-carbon society by 2050, it is important to think in a “back-cast” way: that is, to first decide what the answer is to the kind of society we are specifically aiming towards, and then change our current actions to approach that goal. Because an “ideal society” is different for everyone, we created 2 extreme images of the future: the “urban-centered, technology type” and the “rural-distributed, slow-life type.” For both types we built a methodology to make them happen. Predicting the future from a current standpoint makes it seem impossible, and that is why we used the “back-cast” idea instead of a “forecast” one.


Mr. Nishikawa: Back-casting is a principal way of thinking, and it is important to share the vision with the world and not just within Japan. The issue of climate change is related to many issues such as the North-South problem, food, and energy. Therefore, the issue needs to be seen from various industries and positions. It is about everyone sharing their dreams with each other.
When emissions-trading was created, I wanted to end it as soon as possible. It is difficult to change society to a low-carbon one in a day or two. However, we must start now. To do so, it is vital to start controlling costs, which is 45 billion, at a more payable level. In that sense, emissions-trading works as an economical method for an easier start.


Mr.Mori: Currently, there is a plan to decrease 50% of CO2 by 2050, and to do so Japan needs to decrease by an average of 3% annually. This is a big task. And not only is it important within Japan, but the level must be lowered in other countries such as China. CDM is a system which allows both development and emission control to take place, but in reality it is not accelerating investment at the macro level. Implementing such project in the agricultural regions leads to high risk and costs. Therefore it seems more reasonable to make use of individual voluntary money rather than corporate funds.

(to be continued)

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